12 Dec 2015 - SW OK/TX Panhandle

12 Dec 2015

Initial Target: Altus, OK
Actual Target: Clarendon, TX
Starting Point (SP): Yukon, OK 1100 12 Dec
Ending Point (ENDEX): Yukon, OK 0100 13 Dec
Storm Intercepts: Clarendon, TX
Tornadoes: 0
Hail: None
Wind: Not Severe
Miles: 476

Summary: Late season chase that was foiled by cloud cover all day. Attempted to recover to the west when storms fired west further west than expected, but ran out of time and storm mode changed before we could get to the storms that did fire.

Crew: Myself and Bobbi Burrows

Equipment
Vehicle: 2009 Nissan Titan SE 4x4
Cameras: Canon Rebel XTi
Other Electronics: Dell D610 running Ubuntu OS, Samsung Galaxy Note 4

Map:



 Details:

A rare late season pattern on the southern plains had taken hold, which had produced severe weather in November followed by an ice storm and a revert to warmer temps for the early to middle parts of December. It was a tricky forecast, with little or no consistency from one run to the next. With each passing day, I had to shift my forecast further and further to the west. I woke up the day of and decided on Altus. Drove to Lawton to pick up Bobbi Burrows, my chase partner for the day, and we headed west on US-62 towards Altus.

Once in Altus, we stopped at McDonald's where we used the WiFi to keep an eye on the surface observations and satellite imagery. We stayed there for a few hours while we waited (too long, in retrospect) for the cloud cover to break apart. Once initiation occurred, we found ourselves over 100 miles too far to the east. Dew points were lower that far to the west, so it never crossed my mind that it would happen that way.

We shot west but by the time we got to Clarendon, storm mode had become much messier and there wasn't a whole lot to see. With that, we turned around and headed back towards Lawton. After hanging out for a while with Bobbi and her husband, I finally headed home and got there around 0100.

After Action Review:

I made what I thought was a decent forecast, but sustained cloud cover throughout the day killed any chance at discrete storm development. There just wasn't enough instability. I also discounted the possibility of action over the Texas Panhandle where the dew points were considerably lower. Had I considered that possibility, I could have gone west with enough time to recover and catch the storms while they were still discrete.

Sustains and Improves:
1. Unless the air is bone dry, never discount the TX Panhandle.
2. When cloud cover stays together over your target, adjust accordingly.
3. Model reading is improved, but I still have a long way to go.