Tuesday, December 13, 2016

15 March 2016 - Western Illinois

15 March 2016


Initial Target: Peoria, IL
Final Target: Quincy, IL
Starting Point (SP): Midwest City, OK 1600 CDT 14 March 2016
Ending Point (ENDEX): Yukon, OK 1830 16 March 2016
Storm Intercepts: Quincy, IL; Carthage, IL; Adair, IL.
Tornadoes: 2
Hail: Quarter Size (1")
Wind: No direct measurement. Likely close to severe limits but uncomfirmed.
Miles: 1,517


Summary: Decided late the day before to make the trek to Illinois for one last chase before I started training for my Commercial Driver's License. Initially targeted Peoria and made it as far as the Northbound rest area on I-55 about 30 miles into Illinois. Woke up the next morning and looked at the surface observations and adjusted my target west to Quincy. This turned out to be a very good decision as I was in excellent position when the initial storms went up. Watched a cell try to lower itself just north of Quincy before heading north on IL-110. Saw a funnel far to my west when I was about halfway between Quincy and Carthage, but knew I would never get to it in time. I later found out it was the first tornado of the day, and that another chaser had verified ground contact. Intercepted my main storm just south of Carthage. Condensation funnel never made it to the ground, but I'm convinced that it was actually a tornado, due to the wind fields encountered at my position, and as I sliced north on the back side of the storm. Attempted to keep up with the storm on US-136, but was unable to, and broke on a cell to the south that was trying to root itself down. It had nice structure, but never got any serious rotation, so I headed east to Peoria and then started the journey home. Stopped for the night along the way and made it back to the OKC metro later that evening.

Crew: No chase partner

Equipment:
Vehicle: 2009 Nissan Titan SE 4x4
Camera: Canon Rebel XTi
Other Electronics: Dell Latitude E6430, Samsung Galaxy Grand Prime, Samsung Galaxy Note 4.


Map:


Details: A decent March setup had started to show up on the GFS about 10 days out, and I kept my eye on it as the time got closer. It never did look good from a moisture standpoint, but shear was good and CAPE was very good for the time of year. I had stopped at Old Chicago for a late lunch on the 14th and had my laptop with me as I looked over the models. My initial thought was to not drive that far for what had been seeming like a marginal setup, but I realized that it was likely my last chance to chase before I left in two weeks to train for my CDL. This turned out to be true, as the next chaseable setup was 2 weeks later, which was less than 96 hours after I had left home. So after some thinking about it, I decided to throw a few days worth of clothes in the pickup and take off up I-44. Thinking I was going to target Peoria, I stopped for the night at the northbound rest stop on I-55 about 30 miles into Illinois.

Waking up around 1000 on the 15th, I immediately noticed the strong south wind and knew I was south of the warm front. I looked at surface observations for the area as well as the visual satellite, and decided to set up in Quincy, which is about 90 miles further west than I had planned on, and in a less favorable area for both terrain and data. Stopped at a Love's to get cleaned up real quick (If you ever need a quick shower on the road and are not shelling out for hotel rooms, trucks stops generally have showers that are clean and provide fresh towels for $10-15), and arrived in Quincy around 1300. Stopped in a Best Buy parking lot to see if I needed to reposition, then found out a few chasers I know were already in Quincy (I'm assuming they saw my SN icon because I didn't know that's where they were targeting). Went over and met them at the Starbucks, because I'm not going to turn down a chance at coffee. By this point we were into the 70s as far as air temps went, and a cu field was slowly building overhead. It was now a waiting game.

Sometime after 1500 (I'm not 100% certain on the timing), the first towers started going up across the river on the Missouri side. Knowing storm motions would be what they were, I decided to wait on the Illinois side. I said my goodbyes and quickly got onto I-172 north out of Quincy, where I lost the freeway and it became IL-110 as a 4 lane divided highway.

Shortly north of where 172 became IL-110, I pulled off to the southbound side of the highway to watch a tower that was trying to get itself organized. I saw a few other chasers stop for a little while, but I remained patient as long as I could.

















This one never could get itself together, so I finally gave up on it and drove north to intercept a cell that had pulled itself together and looked good on radar. Days like this make me realize that I need a dedicated dash cam, as this is the only shot I got rolling north on IL-110. I also lost all data shortly after leaving Quincy, and chased the majority of the day without said data.






Around the time I snapped that shot, I looked off to the west and saw what appeared to be a funnel off in the distance. I looked a little closer and there were actually two of them. My gut instinct told me I was on a tight timeline, so I pressed on and didn't take the time to stop and snap a picture. That said, I think it would have been outside of the capabilities of the camera equipment I had at the time.

Made it within a few miles of Carthage when I decided to pull off to the side of the road. I had a good view of the oncoming storm, and I was in a safe location to observe until the RFD overtook me.






Those were the best shots I had. This was an instance where I had wished I was running video equipment as well, and I would have been able to capture more of what was going on. Stills don't convey the pickup rocking from being blasted by inflow coming from the passenger side. Shortly after the last picture was taken, I pulled back to the south to avoid the bulk of the RFD. I still encountered what I would guess were 60-70mph winds, but I don't have an anemometer on my pickup, so I have no way of knowing for sure. I gave it enough time to know it would have crossed the road, then started slicing north up the hook towards US-136. Turned east on 136 and tried to catch back up with the storm but the hail had covered the roads so I kept my speed down and was unable to get back out in front of the storm. 

Made it to Macomb, where I finally regained data, and had a choice to make. Try to catch back up to the cell that, to this point, I had been unable to, but was already producing again, or cut east and south for a cell that was still trying to mature. I went for the latter, and continued east on US-136. The cell looked nice structurally, and I encountered my biggest hail of the day with this cell, but it never lost its elevated characteristics and never was able to pull together any rotation. I stopped to watch it near Adair, but it was getting dark and decided to head back for the interstates.

Continuing east on US-136 for a time, I picked up US-24 towards Peoria. The lightning show was impressive to my north, but I couldn't see much more than that due to the hills to my north blocking my view. I knew there was a tornado warning on the north side of Peoria, but, being in unfamiliar territory at night, I decided to head towards home and went south, narrowly getting past Springfield ahead of a squall line. From there I continued down I-55 to St. Louis where I picked up I-44 towards home, stopping to sleep at a rest area between Rolla and Springfield. I made it back home the next day after having covered just over 1500 miles.

After Action Review:

I made a good forecast, and adjusted it accordingly the morning of. When I lost data north of Quincy, I reverted back to the way I chased prior to 2012 where I relied primarily on instincts. This was a good final chase of the spring, as I missed the bulk of the season due to learning how to drive semi trucks.

Sustains and Improves: 

1. Keep up the forecasting work. I've made a lot of effort with my forecasting and it really paid off this season.
2. I need to incorporate video equipment into what I carry with me on chases. I missed opportunities because I didn't have the video equipment to record.
3. Rely on instincts. Since I spent a large portion of time without data, it forced me to revert to how I chased before, and the results show that I need to rely more on my gut. I've been burned in the past where I ignored my gut because of radar data, and this was a good example of my instincts putting me into great position. I've found over the years that I have excellent intuition with regards to weather, and it's a tool that I've neglected with the technological tools that are available to us now.

Friday, March 4, 2016

24 Feb 2016 - Eastern NC

24 Feb 2016

Initial Target: Fayetteville, NC
Actual Target: Fayetteville, NC
Starting Point (SP): Murfreesboro, TN 0300 CST 24 Feb
Ending Point (ENDEX): Pinehurst, NC 1905 EST 24 Feb
Storm Intercepts: Stedman, NC
Tornadoes: 0
Hail: Pea Size
Wind: Unknown, like close to or above severe limits
Miles: 712

Summary: First chase of 2016. I was traveling to NC that day anyway to visit my mom for a few days, so I decided to get some chasing in while I was there. I had been watching this system ever since the NAM came into range. Targeted the Fayetteville, NC area. Forecast verified but execution was nearly botched as I spent too much time napping at a truck stop in GA. Still was able to make it north of Fayetteville before realizing I would never catch the storms to my west. Saw another storm mature to my south and doubled back to intercept. Only had 5-10 minutes to observe before the storm raced off to the NE but had a good lowering with great motion. It just didn't quite produce. Called it a chase and drove back to the west to my mom's house.

Crew: No chase partner

Equipment
Vehicle: 2009 Nissan Titan SE 4x4
Camera: Canon Rebel XTi
Other Electronics: Dell Latitude E6430 running Win 10, Samsung Galaxy Grand Prime, Samsung Galaxy Note 4

Map: (Map is somewhat off in the area of the storm intercepts. My changes to my route on google maps did not make it over to the embed tool)


Details:

An early season pattern had set in, with much of Dixie being impacted by severe weather the previous day. I was planning to travel to my mom's on Wednesday, so I decided to go chase while I was on the road. Everything I had seen model wise pointed towards a Fayetteville, NC target, so I decided to travel through Atlanta to get there due to the route being primarily interstate.

I left Murfreesboro, TN around 0300 CST, finally getting through Atlanta somewhere between 0800 and 0900. I continued east on I-20 before pulling off to rest about halfway between Atlanta and Augusta, GA. This nearly cost me as I slept for about 30 minutes longer than I wanted to, and it was nearly 1330. As I neared Columbus, SC, storms started going up and I managed to push east to the I-95 corridor ahead of them. From there I just tried to get north as quickly as I could reasonably do so.

After getting about 20 minutes north of Fayetteville, I realized I would never catch the storms that had impacted areas just west of Fort Bragg, and found a storm just getting to Lumberton. I doubled back for an intercept and waited in Stedman. After sitting at an old neighborhood Walmart parking lot, I realized I was a little closer to the path than I wanted to be, and pushed about a mile farther east. Due to the pine trees, I had to pick and choose where I set up but found a few areas with a decent view. Even then, storm motions were in the 60 kts range, so I only had about 5 solid minutes of view.

From my vantage point at the old Walmart, I could see rotation, but did not have a clear view of the lowering.



Once I moved east, I did not have a good view until it crossed NC-24. From there it was fully in view for longer than I expected, but eventually rain wrapped around and got in the way. Despite the lowering and substantial rotation I observed, I did not see any part of it make contact with the ground. Nor did I observe any signs of damage when I went back through Stedman. I only encountered minor hail, but I did catch a nasty crosswind from the next storm in line as I drove back to the west to head for Mom's.








After this point, I called it a chase, and drove the remaining distance to Mom's. All in all, not a bad chase. Good forecast but definitely could have been better on the execution.

After Action Review:

I made an excellent forecast, and put myself into the right area. I nearly botched the execution when I napped to long, however. That said, it was a good chase, and I came very close to breaking my tornado-less streak. Mother Nature just didn't quite cooperate.

Sustains and Improves:
1. Forecast was spot on. Efforts to improve paid off
2. Don't nap too long. This nearly caused me to miss the entire show.
3. Did a good job evaluating my position and adjusting when I felt it could be too risky. Despite the rapid storm motions, the decision was made early enough that movement was accomplished with plenty of time to spare.

12 Dec 2015 - SW OK/TX Panhandle

12 Dec 2015

Initial Target: Altus, OK
Actual Target: Clarendon, TX
Starting Point (SP): Yukon, OK 1100 12 Dec
Ending Point (ENDEX): Yukon, OK 0100 13 Dec
Storm Intercepts: Clarendon, TX
Tornadoes: 0
Hail: None
Wind: Not Severe
Miles: 476

Summary: Late season chase that was foiled by cloud cover all day. Attempted to recover to the west when storms fired west further west than expected, but ran out of time and storm mode changed before we could get to the storms that did fire.

Crew: Myself and Bobbi Burrows

Equipment
Vehicle: 2009 Nissan Titan SE 4x4
Cameras: Canon Rebel XTi
Other Electronics: Dell D610 running Ubuntu OS, Samsung Galaxy Note 4

Map:



 Details:

A rare late season pattern on the southern plains had taken hold, which had produced severe weather in November followed by an ice storm and a revert to warmer temps for the early to middle parts of December. It was a tricky forecast, with little or no consistency from one run to the next. With each passing day, I had to shift my forecast further and further to the west. I woke up the day of and decided on Altus. Drove to Lawton to pick up Bobbi Burrows, my chase partner for the day, and we headed west on US-62 towards Altus.

Once in Altus, we stopped at McDonald's where we used the WiFi to keep an eye on the surface observations and satellite imagery. We stayed there for a few hours while we waited (too long, in retrospect) for the cloud cover to break apart. Once initiation occurred, we found ourselves over 100 miles too far to the east. Dew points were lower that far to the west, so it never crossed my mind that it would happen that way.

We shot west but by the time we got to Clarendon, storm mode had become much messier and there wasn't a whole lot to see. With that, we turned around and headed back towards Lawton. After hanging out for a while with Bobbi and her husband, I finally headed home and got there around 0100.

After Action Review:

I made what I thought was a decent forecast, but sustained cloud cover throughout the day killed any chance at discrete storm development. There just wasn't enough instability. I also discounted the possibility of action over the Texas Panhandle where the dew points were considerably lower. Had I considered that possibility, I could have gone west with enough time to recover and catch the storms while they were still discrete.

Sustains and Improves:
1. Unless the air is bone dry, never discount the TX Panhandle.
2. When cloud cover stays together over your target, adjust accordingly.
3. Model reading is improved, but I still have a long way to go.